The Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies has released a paper titled “Applying the Ethnic Rebellion Model and Risk Assessment Model to Conflict in Myanmar,” by Lina Gong, Manpavan Kaur, and Alistair D.B. Cook. The paper discusses the use of early warning models in genocide prevention and applies two accepted models to the case study of Myanmar. The application of the models shows that “the internal ethnic conflict is likely to continue and there exist trigger or accelerating factors for genocide to occur.” The report also assesses the effectiveness of the early warning models which need to be addressed in order to make them more effective in conflict and genocide assessments.
Photo: Genocide Intervention